I didn’t expect instant coffee to be so powerful?

As freshly ground coffee becomes more and more accessible, who still drinks instant coffee? The real data is unexpected:

Instant Coffee Survey:

The market share is 95.2%, but the proportion is declining

Data from Euromonitor International shows that instant coffee accounted for 95.2% of the entire Chinese coffee market in 2017.

Although this data is impressive, it may not be optimistic compared to the share of instant coffee in previous years.

Some media have cited data from Euromonitor International showing that the share of instant coffee in the Chinese market has continued to decline. In 2013, this share was as high as 97.6%, and in 2017 it dropped to 95.2%. It is expected that after 2022, this figure will fall to 91.6%.

Unexpectedly, instant coffee occupies most of the market

The trend of "decreasing proportion" is also reflected in the online market.

The reporter learned from Alibaba that currently, on the Tmall platform, instant coffee sales account for more than 70%, making it the largest category in the online coffee market. However, its market share has been declining, and its growth rate has also slowed down.

User profile:

Middle-aged and elderly people are the main offline consumers of instant drinks

When it comes to instant coffee, Nestlé is the dominant player.

According to data from Euromonitor International, last year, Nestlé's market share in the instant coffee market reached 72.3%, while Maxwell House, ranked second, had only 3.1%.

It is not difficult to see it on the shelves of major supermarkets in Hangzhou.

The reporter saw on the coffee shelves of CR Vanguard Shijiaqiao store that among the more than 40 instant coffee SKUs, Nestlé occupied nearly 2/3 of them, both in terms of SKUs and display area.

This is even more true for market share. According to a relevant person in charge of the East China branch of China Resources Vanguard, in the Zhejiang market in 2018, Nestlé accounted for 75% of the market share, Maxwell House accounted for 11%, followed by Cobico and Blue Coast, with 5% and 4% respectively.

The question is, who is drinking instant coffee nowadays?

A relevant person in charge of the circulation food retail business department of Nestlé (China) Co., Ltd. Hangzhou Branch said that from the perspective of the offline market, the majority are middle-aged and elderly people over 45 years old.

Middle-aged and elderly people are the main offline consumers of instant coffee

This is a result that surprised many people. After all, in the eyes of many people, fashionable coffee is more suitable for young people.

The person in charge admitted that in recent years, many young consumers have been "lost" in the offline market, " and among the remaining young people, most are students and junior white-collar workers, accounting for less than 20% of the market share."

This group of people - students and junior white-collar workers - are exactly the main consumers of Tmall instant coffee. This is what the reporter learned from Kuncheng, a waiter in the Tmall coffee industry.

What’s more interesting is that among Tmall’s coffee consumers, more than 60% are new users who bought coffee online for the first time in 2017. Among these new users, those under 29 account for a higher proportion than older users.

This makes us draw the conclusion that the group of young instant coffee consumers lost in offline supermarkets are likely to have gone online.

So, where are the young people other than students and junior white-collar workers going? "It is possible that these young people have switched to drinking freshly ground coffee," said a person in charge of the food retail business department of Nestlé (China) Co., Ltd. Hangzhou Branch.

Instant "competition army":

Capsule and filter coffee are coming on strong

To a certain extent, the consumption scenarios of instant coffee and freshly ground coffee are different.

The former is convenient. Even when you are on a business trip or traveling, you can just bring a pack with you and have a drink in less than half a minute. The latter has the advantage of social and leisure attributes, which is equivalent to a "social media" and is deeply loved by young people.

In addition to drinking freshly ground coffee in coffee shops, in the past two years, one of the subcategories of freshly ground coffee, filter coffee, has been replacing instant coffee in a portable form and has been on the desks of white-collar workers. It is also considered one of the best ways for boutique coffee brands to move away from stores and move towards desks and home brewing.

According to data from the Alibaba platform, the sales growth rate of filter coffee has exceeded that of coffee beans and coffee powder in the past three years, and its market share has continued to increase.

Higher quality is the advantage of filter coffee

Another competitor to instant coffee is capsule coffee. According to Tmall data, the growth rate of capsule coffee has been rising since 2015, reaching 60% in 2017. Due to the high production threshold and the short rise time, the brand concentration of capsule coffee is very high. On the Tmall Taobao platform, 85% of the market share is occupied by Nestlé Nespresso.

Price comparison:

The low price of 1 to 3 yuan per cup makes instant coffee the mainstream

The most crucial difference between instant coffee and freshly ground coffee is the price.

Take Nestle as an example. Nestle's instant coffee is mainly divided into mixed coffee (that is, milk + coffee) and mellow coffee. The price of ordinary mixed coffee is less than 1.5 yuan per cup, and when there are promotional activities, the price is even less than 1 yuan per cup. The price of high-end mixed coffee is mostly 2-3 yuan per cup.

Chunpin coffee is divided into domestic and imported ones, and the retail prices in supermarkets are 29 yuan/50g and 49 yuan/50g respectively. Based on the Tmall flagship store customer service's suggestion of "brewing 25 cups", the price of a single cup of domestic and imported coffee is 1.2 yuan and 2 yuan respectively.

1 cup is less than 1 yuan, the price is really cheap

"Although the market share of pure coffee is not high, accounting for only 12%-15%, its development has been steadily increasing recently," said a relevant person in charge of the circulation food retail business department of the Hangzhou branch of Nestlé (China) Co., Ltd.

Compared with instant coffee, the price of freshly ground coffee is much higher. Take Starbucks as an example, the price of a 360ml medium cup is mostly between 25 yuan and 30 yuan per cup. Take the popular Internet coffee Luckin Coffee as an example, its APP shows that the price of a large cup is mostly between 20 yuan and 30 yuan per cup.

As a subcategory of freshly ground coffee, filter coffee is relatively cheaper. The reporter saw in Tmall's "illy flagship store" that when there is a store discount, the price of 25 bags of filter coffee is 128 yuan, equivalent to 5.12 yuan per cup.

" Coffee consumption, as an elastic demand, is actually dispensable for most people. " Lou Boeing, co-founder of the China Coffee Industry Alliance of the Ministry of Commerce and a coffee culture columnist, said that its consumption frequency is actually proportional to the per capita disposable income.

Lou Boeing gave an example. In China's first-tier coastal cities, such as Shanghai, the average annual coffee consumption per person was 8 cups in 2017, while in Japan, the average annual coffee consumption per person can reach more than 400 cups. In some Nordic countries, the average annual coffee consumption per person can even reach 800 cups.

"Of course, it is not accurate to just talk about the frequency. The difference in consumption quantity is also related to the price of local coffee." Lou Boeing said that in some Nordic countries, the price of freshly ground coffee is 2 euros per cup, and the average monthly income is 3,500 euros to 4,000 euros. "When comparing the two, it is not difficult to understand why instant coffee is still the mainstream of domestic consumption."

Price and consumer demand are the main factors affecting coffee consumption frequency

Analysis: The road to "consumption upgrade" of instant coffee

What will be the future of instant coffee? Will it be replaced by freshly ground coffee?

Wang Zhendong, a coffee industry expert, believes that instant coffee still plays an important role in the development of the entire coffee industry. "If instant coffee can find a model for consumption upgrade, there is still a lot of room for development."

How to upgrade consumption? Wang Zhendong said that the first step is to remove the label of "unhealthy" from many people's minds about instant coffee , "especially because many people are afraid of the trans fatty acids and high sugar content in it."

The second step is to improve the taste. Wang Zhendong has been to South Korea many times and has tried the local instant coffee. "It tastes good, 800-1000 won (RMB 4.87-6.08) a cup, many convenience stores have it," he said.

Wang Zhendong believes that the reason why many people are giving up instant coffee and paying for freshly ground coffee is also influenced by traditional tea culture. "Instant coffee is an industrial product in the eyes of many people, and freshly ground coffee has more advantages in terms of experience."

" In the future, coffee consumption will definitely be in diversified scenarios. If you need space, you can go to a coffee shop; if you want to use coffee as a lifestyle and make use of its social attributes, you can add a coffee machine to your office; if you are an overtime worker who wants to improve work efficiency, you can use capsule coffee, filter coffee, instant coffee, etc. In the future, the differentiation of scenarios will become more and more obvious," said Wang Zhendong.

Lou Boeing also agrees that "the diversification of coffee consumption scenarios is unstoppable." "This is why more and more investors are willing to touch this industry." Lou Boeing said that in the past two years, a lot of capital has been pouring into the fast-moving consumer goods industry, and coffee is a branch that many people are optimistic about.

But for consumers, being able to have a cup of delicious coffee anytime and anywhere is the most important thing.

Chongqing Bairest Coffee and Pastry Training Academy