This article reviews Mann
In this small stall of a few square meters, a hurricane-like competition is brewing. Especially with the entry of giants, the scene of "prosperity followed by chaos" may be repeated. Source: Danjie Entrepreneurship (manjiechuangye) Next, you will get answers to the following questions:
Monthly income of 100,000? It's not easy to make money In 2015, Manner opened its first store on Nanyang Road in Jing'an District, Shanghai. The store was only 2 square meters. According to reports, it could sell 100,000 yuan per month when it was the most popular. Currently, Manner Coffee has 40 stores, mainly in Shanghai. In the world of premium take-out coffee in mainland China, Manner is already a veteran. Because most of the coffee shops that Danjie Entrepreneurship can contact, such as Fineline Coffee, Flykoi Coffee, BuzzTime Coffee, etc., opened after 2015 and have less than ten stores. This time we first evaluated an earlier store opened by Manner in Beijing, located in Huamao Shopping Center on Dawang Road. Manner's other store in Beijing is in Xidan Hanguang Department Store. 1. Visit the Manner Coffee Shop in China Central Place Shopping Center Location: This store is located in the Huamao Shopping Center on Dawang Road, where luxury brands gather. Although it is a shopping center, the 20th and 30th floors above and the surrounding area are all office buildings, belonging to the Guomao CBD business district. This store is estimated to cover an area of about 500 meters. Overview: This shop is in cooperation with a shoe store. It only occupies about 2 square meters. There is no sign at the door. You can only see the word "Manner" when you get closer. It has been open for half a year and ranks first on the popular list of Da Wang Road cafes on Dianping. Business hours: 8:30 am - 6:00 pm. I visited the store at 5:30 pm, only half an hour before closing time, and I was the only one buying coffee during this half hour. According to the store clerk, people who often drink coffee usually have a cup in the morning or at noon, and stop drinking after 4 or 5 pm, otherwise they may not be able to sleep at night, so there are usually more people in the morning and at noon. Many small coffee shops in office buildings also close at 6 or 7 p.m. However, reducing business hours means higher requirements for traffic density. Products: Prices are mostly 15 yuan for a small cup and 20 yuan for a large cup, with a 5 yuan discount for bringing your own cup. There is also hand-brewed coffee, ranging from 28 yuan to 200 yuan. In addition to coffee, Manner also sells coffee beans, coffee cups, coffee utensils, equipment and other products. Staff: There are three employees in the store, but there was only one when I visited. Since they use semi-automatic coffee machines, there are certain requirements for the barista's skills. It is understood that usually more than one year of experience is required. Revenue: Judging from the order number, the store sold 313 orders that day, and calculated at 15 yuan, the revenue for the day reached about 4,600 yuan. Since it is an office building, there is very little traffic on weekends, so it can be ignored. So the monthly revenue is about 106,000 yuan. In fact, from an accounting perspective, the logic of this type of store is not complicated. It is to increase the number of cups of coffee output while reducing expenses . Traditional coffee shops are usually 200-300 square meters, with initial investment costs of one or two million yuan. The high rent and labor costs require very high sales. Although coffee has a high gross profit of 75%-80%, the average customer spending is very low, selling a cup for 30 yuan, and customers can sit for an entire afternoon, so the efficiency per square meter is very low. If you rent a 200-300 square meter hot pot shop, the average customer spending can be several times higher, generally at least 100 yuan. In addition, the number of coffee consumers in mainland China is still too small to achieve profitability based on the number of cups sold, so most large-scale coffee shops are currently losing money. Regarding this part, I suggest that you click on "Will opening a coffee shop go bankrupt? " to read the in-depth evaluation article on coffee shops by Danjie Chuangye in April this year. Under the objective conditions of "three highs and one low", the take-out model with less rent and less labor costs is reasonable. However, this kind of store has extremely strict requirements on the location. If there is enough traffic, in places like Beijing and Shanghai where rent and labor costs are high, it is possible to make money by selling more than 200 cups a day on average. Therefore, for entrepreneurs who want to do this business, they must first understand Manner’s site selection strategy. Manner was first opened on the street in Shanghai, near the vegetable market, also known as vegetable market coffee, and later opened in a shopping mall. Although the location has changed, the location has one thing in common - adjacent to the office area. Because white-collar workers are the main consumer group of coffee. When choosing a specific location, there must be enough people passing by every day, that is, the core location of the core office area in first- and second-tier cities. In this location, a five or six square meter apartment costs about 30,000 yuan per month, which means the rent per square meter per day is 167-200 yuan, which is very expensive. Of course, the price of this location is not necessarily determined purely by area, the value of the location is the first priority. In addition to Manner, Danjie Venture also evaluated Flykoi, a brand that currently has only 4 stores. We can also gain more experience in site selection through the development history of Flykoi. 2. Visit the Flykoi store in Jianwai SOHO Location: Guomao Jianwai SOHO, this is Beijing CBD, where the most accurate coffee lovers gather. Flykoi ranks first on the Guomao coffee shop evaluation list. Overview: This store is located in the basement of an office building, on a corner, and is easy to find. Each building in Jianwai SOHO is independent, and the restaurants downstairs are scattered in various areas. At noon, the flow of people is scattered, so there is no concentrated direction of traffic. The store area is about 6 square meters, and the business hours are from 8:00 am to 7:00 pm. Products: There are 18 basic products in total. The price of a single cup is mostly 15 yuan for a small cup and 20 yuan for a large cup. You can get a 5 yuan discount if you bring your own cup. There are also toast coffee breakfast sets. Revenue: Judging from the order number, there were 117 orders on that day, and the unit price was uniformly calculated at 15 yuan, so the income on that day was 1,755 yuan. Of course, there are differences in daily income, and there is a small range of error in the estimated monthly income. According to Flykoi founder You Hongda, when the business is good, the daily output of cups can reach more than 200. According to this calculation, the monthly income is about 50,000 to 70,000 yuan. Flykoi was founded in 2018 and has three stores in Beijing and one in Qingdao. The founder, You Hongda, is from Taiwan and has resources in coffee bean trading. He opened a coffee roasting factory in Qingdao earlier and later opened his first coffee shop, with an annual rent of 80,000 yuan. When sales were good, the daily output could reach 200 cups. At the end of 2018, he moved to the Beijing market. You Hongda believes that the takeaway coffee market must have a sufficient growth rate, otherwise it cannot support the volume approach. It is OK to open one or two stores in Qingdao, but if you want to quickly open a chain, it is impossible to achieve the growth rate of first-tier cities.
Is it innovation? No! 711, FamilyMart, and CoCo are all competitors. Take-out coffee targets the different needs of the same group of people at different time periods. Specifically, at breakfast time, it can replace soy milk + buns or milk + bread to meet the need for breakfast, so if we put aside the VI design and fashionable decoration, this type of store is essentially like a stall selling soy milk and buns; at lunch time, it can replace bottled drinks to meet the need for dry food or liquid drinks after meals; at afternoon tea time, it can replace tea bags and instant coffee to meet the need for drowsiness and refreshment. These three demands all point to the same group of people: white-collar workers in first- and second-tier cities. So, in a sense, the upgrade of takeaway coffee is not just about the taste and quality of coffee lovers, but also about the needs of those who don’t like coffee but don’t want to drink beverages or street soy milk. In the view of the editorial department of Egg Solution Entrepreneurship, the market for this group of people is broader. It is for this reason that we find that 7-11, FamilyMart, and CoCo have already started their layout one after another, and 7-11 and FamilyMart even lead the market. For example, in Taiwan, China, where coffee culture is relatively mature, 7-11's CITYCAFE sells more than 300 million cups a year. It should be noted that the total population of Taiwan is only about 23 million. In other words, coffee has long become a part of people's daily life, just like soy milk. Another example is Japan. In 2013, 7-11 Japan launched the freshly ground coffee brand Seven Cafe, which sold 450 million cups in one year. In mainland China, 7-Eleven launched freshly ground coffee in East China as early as 2010. But at that time, coffee was still a symbol of the middle class, and sales were not good. Later, with the rapid growth of the coffee market (CAGR reached 13.5% from 2011 to 2016), domestic convenience store coffee began to gain attention. Around 2014, 7-11, Lawson and FamilyMart all launched freshly ground coffee in China. FamilyMart's coffee brand Pai Ke opened more than 900 stores in 2016 and sold more than 10 million cups of coffee that year. In November 2018, FamilyMart sold coffee in more than 2,000 convenience stores across the country, with sales of more than 40 million cups that year, equivalent to an average of 50 cups per store per day, an astonishing growth rate. The head of FamilyMart Pai Ke Coffee in China said that the goal for 2019 is to sell 100 million cups. Luckin Coffee opened a total of 2,000 stores in 2018, but only sold 90 million cups despite crazy subsidies. It can be seen that selling coffee in convenience stores is very profitable. They have an advantage in traffic, and office workers habitually go here during breakfast and lunch time, which is a strong competitor for stand-alone takeaway coffee. In addition to convenience stores, milk tea shops are also developing coffee. As a well-known milk tea brand in China, CoCo has 3,100 stores across the country. It began to gradually launch coffee in 2015, and now has 1,500 stores selling coffee. As for why convenience stores sell coffee, our in-depth evaluations of coffee shops in April and convenience stores in March have made the analysis very clear. Click on the blue words to view the coffee and convenience store articles. Today we will focus on why milk tea shops sell coffee. First of all, selling coffee can increase business hours and customers. People usually drink milk tea in the afternoon, and rarely in the morning, so most milk tea shops open after 10 o'clock. If you sell coffee, you can advance the opening time to 7 or 8 o'clock. Increasing business hours can increase sales. Secondly, the people who buy coffee in milk tea shops are the same people who originally drank milk tea. Take-out coffee is aimed at young white-collar workers who need convenience for breakfast and lunch, so in addition to pre-packaged products, convenience stores also sell meals, soy milk, buns, and oden, while milk tea shops can sell coffee and bread. Moreover, many milk tea shops occupy relatively good business district stalls, which are very suitable for the expansion of this type of product. Therefore, based on the two points of "location + demand", we can see that in office business districts, in addition to convenience stores and milk tea shops, cake shops also offer coffee and soy milk. Beijing Weiduomei has a 15-yuan breakfast set meal with free soy milk. These giants are all competitors of boutique coffee shops specializing in take-out.
Will Luckin Coffee’s Xiaolu Tea leave the battlefield littered with corpses? In September 2019, Luckin Coffee officially launched Xiaolu Tea. Once launched, it was open to franchisees and proposed a partnership model. With 0 franchise fees, on the surface it seemed to be about bringing everyone along for the fun, but the real purpose was to gain traffic and enter third- and fourth-tier cities through a partnership system. This time, we also visited Xiaolu Tea’s earliest model store in Beijing, which is also its only store. The store was transformed from the original Luckin Coffee store. 1. Visit Xiaolu Tea in CBD Location: This store is located near SOHO Shangdu South Tower, which is also the CBD of Beijing. There are so many coffee shops around it. There are six or seven Luckin coffee shops in the less than one kilometer walk from the subway entrance to Xiaolu Tea. Time: 9-11 a.m. on Friday. This is when the milk tea and coffee orders are the highest, and the store clerks are busy making drinks. Ordering experience: We tried to order a drink on site. There were only two staff members, both of whom were making drinks. There was no cashier or cash register machine. All orders were placed through Luckin's online system, including the Luckin Coffee App and the Xiaolu Tea App. As soon as an order is placed, the machine will automatically print the order information, and the staff just need to follow it. Customers can scan the code to order on site, or order remotely on the App, and then pick up or deliver. When picking up the order, they only need to scan the QR code generated after payment. Products: Xiaolu Tea has 45 products, including Bobo milk tea, fruit tea, milk tea, etc., and also includes all the coffee in the coffee shop. Profitability: According to the staff, the store sells about 400 drinks a day, with coffee and milk tea split 50-50. According to the 50% gross profit standard provided by Xiaolu Tea's official recruitment agency, the average price per cup is 27 yuan, and with a 40% discount, the monthly income is 149,000 yuan, and the gross profit is 74,500 yuan. Two employees, costs 14,000 yuan/month, and rent is 40,000 yuan/month. Decoration costs 80,000 yuan, equipment 150,000 yuan, monthly depreciation costs 6,400 yuan, and water and electricity expenses are 2,000 yuan. The net income per month is 12,000 yuan. 2. Why choose tea? First of all, we still need to look at Luckin’s strategic points. Luckin Coffee is mainly deployed in first- and second-tier cities because coffee drinkers are concentrated there. In contrast, there are very few coffee users in third- and fourth-tier cities. Luckin Tea is mainly deployed in third- and fourth-tier cities because milk tea has a certain user base in various regions of China, even in rural areas. Secondly, there is actually a certain overlap between the coffee drinkers and the milk tea drinkers. The coffee drinkers are mainly women aged 20-35, and the same is true for milk tea. As we analyzed earlier, if people’s demand for beverage health and quality is upgraded, the milk tea drinkers and coffee drinkers are the same group of people. In addition, in terms of consumption time, coffee is mainly consumed in the morning and at noon, while milk tea is more consumed in the afternoon. For stores, coffee + milk tea can complement each other in time and increase business hours. In addition, coffee is mainly consumed with a purpose, while milk tea is more inclined to random consumption, and people drink a cup when they are tired of shopping. Therefore, Luckin Coffee was mainly located in office areas in the past. At present, Luckin Coffee has opened 3,680 stores, but there are only a limited number of office locations in China that are suitable for take-out coffee due to the huge flow of people . If Luckin Coffee wants to gain more users and find new growth points, it must find ways to enter more areas and go to other places where traffic is concentrated, such as shopping malls and third- and fourth-tier cities. Therefore, tea drinks became Luckin Coffee’s inevitable choice. As we described earlier, the business model of coffee + milk tea is not innovative. CoCo has more than 3,000 stores across the country, half of which sell coffee drinks, including basic styles such as Americano and latte, as well as some creative coffees with fruit. However, according to data from food delivery platforms, the sales of coffee in milk tea shops are not good, accounting for less than one-tenth. The editorial department of Danjie Entrepreneurship analyzed that there may be three reasons: First, although the upgrades are in response to urban white-collar workers’ demands for beverage quality and taste, tea drinks are more suitable for the taste of Chinese women, while the consumer base for coffee is relatively weak. Second, Coco's previous location strategy was mainly aimed at users with leisure consumption needs, so the locations were mostly concentrated near shopping malls and other places with high traffic. It might not be very convenient to bring a cup to the office to have breakfast or digest lunch. Third, at present, people who drink coffee even for breakfast should have had many years of "coffee age". This group of people has their own contempt chain. They prefer to be associated with "boutique coffee" rather than with a milk tea seller. According to Luckin's third quarter 2019 financial report, Luckin Coffee stores have achieved profitability, with an average net income of 450,000 yuan per store in the quarter, a profit margin of 12.5% at the store operation level, and a profit of 186 million yuan. Under the favorable news, Luckin Coffee rose 25.4% to close at $27.02 at the close of U.S. stocks on November 15, setting the largest single-day increase since its listing. This is the first time that Luckin Coffee has made a profit at the store operation level, but this profit does not include marketing expenses. After including them, Luckin Coffee's net loss in the third quarter reached 532 million yuan, and the loss margin widened by 9.6%. Luckin Coffee still needs to give investors an answer sheet. It is still difficult to make the profit figures in the financial report look good in the short term, but if they only make the revenue figures look good, it will be much easier for them to enter the milk tea field, and there is more room for imagination. 3. Why join? Xiaolu Tea is an important strategic step for Luckin Coffee to penetrate the market, acquire more users and find new growth points. Luckin Coffee's official information shows that it used to operate its business in first- and second-tier markets, a model that requires a lot of capital, a large number of managers, and an excellent management system. However, China's third- and fourth-tier cities are too extensive, and the fully direct-operated model means more capital and a larger management team. Direct operation is too burdensome. So this time, Luckin chose to franchise. Let’s first take a look at Xiaolu Tea’s franchise model. In other words, the franchisees pay for the costs of decoration, labor, rent, etc., Luckin is responsible for marketing, promotion, traffic, and cashiering, and then the two parties share the profits according to different gross profit income levels. In addition, Luckin requires that all ordering and payment must be done through Luckin's online system, which means that the consumer's money first goes to Luckin, and then Luckin returns the money to the franchisee regularly according to the agreement. The company that has done well in this regard is MINISO. As an upgraded version of the 10-yuan premium store, MINISO has a franchise model of "brand usage fee + product deposit system + next-day profit sharing". This model can ensure the unified and efficient operation of the store, and franchisees do not need to spend too much energy on management. 38% of the next-day profit sharing flow goes to franchisees. Today, MINISO has 3,500 stores across the country, with annual revenue exceeding 17 billion. The advantages of this model are: high efficiency, and the brand can quickly execute any marketing activities it wants. At the same time, it can also ensure that franchisees will not act recklessly. You should know that many food safety issues in restaurant franchises are caused by franchisees not being restrained. Once the incident is hyped, the entire brand will be damaged, and even franchisees who operate honestly will have their customer flow affected. Similarly, Luckin can also direct offline traffic to the online platform, while also firmly controlling franchisees, making it impossible for franchisees to bypass the platform to receive orders. For franchisees, this model also has disadvantages, that is, the degree of freedom is not high enough. The entire traffic is controlled by the platform, and all arrangements must be made by the platform. Franchisees are in a relatively weaker position. At the same time, the accounts are also on the platform, and there is no flexibility to use cash flow to do other things, such as opening new stores or paying rent. According to Luckin's official forecasting model, if a franchisee sells 100 cups a day, he will earn 19,500 yuan a month; if he sells 300 cups a day, he will earn about 50,000 yuan a month. This is the income without considering the decoration, equipment depreciation, rent, and labor costs. If these costs are included, the initial decoration and equipment investment is 300,000 yuan, and the monthly depreciation for 3 years will be about 8,300 yuan. Excluding labor, rent, water and electricity, selling 100 cups a day is likely to be a loss. Here, there are two points that Danjie Entrepreneurship needs to remind everyone. First of all, the franchise of Xiaolu Tea is not a franchise in the traditional sense. Traditional franchise means that the franchisee settles the accounts independently, and the financial statements of the headquarters will not include the turnover of this store. However, Xiaolu Tea is more like working with capital, because all accounts are handled by the headquarters, and the turnover of the headquarters will be very large. The headquarters will then divide the accounts regularly, just like paying salaries to salesmen. Secondly, the first goal of Internet financing companies is to attract users, and then to make profits. Therefore, in order to attract more users, Luckin will continue to adopt subsidy policies and maintain high marketing expenses, such as hiring spokespersons . Entrepreneurs need to clarify whether the subsidies and marketing expenses are paid by the headquarters or franchisees, or how to share them. Regarding the consequences of this part, I suggest that you read in detail "How Deep is the Water of Opening a Bakery? " This article describes in detail the impact of various subsidy policies and marketing expenses of the Internet bakery brand Xingfu Cake on the profitability of franchisees. In addition, the platform's checkout cycle and policies must also be paid attention to. Not many companies can achieve next-day settlement.
Remember, in this world, the buyer is always better than the seller. The natural disadvantages of specialty coffee First of all, let's explain what is specialty coffee and what is creative coffee. Since I am not used to drinking coffee, my explanation may be biased, and you are welcome to leave a message to correct it. Specialty coffee is coffee beans with unique aroma grown under special climate and geographical conditions, brewed by experienced baristas. The coffee beans themselves are of higher quality than the coffee on the commodity market, and the requirements for roasting the coffee beans and brewing technology are also higher. For example, Geisha is the king of specialty coffee beans. In addition to the basic operation of adding milk and chocolate to coffee, creative coffee also adds milk cream, milk cap, fruit, cream, etc. Orientals are not used to the bitterness of coffee, and this creative coffee incorporates more sweetness and is more suitable for Orientals. From the above description, you can see that in order to ensure the taste, in addition to requiring the coffee beans to reach boutique level, specialty coffee also has requirements for baristas and production processes. Take-out specialty coffee is made with semi-automatic coffee machines. The taste of each cup of coffee is integrated with the barista's craftsmanship, and the strength of the powder pressing, weather temperature, humidity, etc. must all be taken into consideration. The coffee brewed by different baristas has only one standard that meets the standards, and it is impossible to make them absolutely the same. In order to achieve coffee standardization, brands such as Starbucks and Luckin Coffee use fully automatic coffee machines. Even a novice can brew coffee of standard taste as long as he knows how to operate the machine and undergoes necessary training. So even if there are thousands of stores across China, they can ensure that the taste of coffee in each store is roughly the same, but using fully automatic coffee machines requires sacrificing some quality. Of course, this does not apply to coffee sold in some Starbucks stores that uses special processes. Therefore, as long as the main product is boutique coffee, it will naturally have the disadvantage of being difficult to operate on a large scale because it cannot be standardized. Whether it is Manner, Blue Bottle, Stumptown, or Seesaw, their scaled development is very slow and they do not have many stores. Manner, which has the fastest store opening speed, relied on cash flow to open stores before financing, and the speed was also very slow, opening only 7 stores in 2 years. After Manner raised funds to accelerate store openings, not every store was profitable, and some even had overall losses. Another Seesaw that originated in Shanghai opened its first store in 2012, and only opened 7 stores in the next five years. After accelerating financing, it now has more than 20 stores. In addition, the immature and uneven distribution of the coffee market in mainland China has also hindered the expansion of boutique takeout coffee. In Taiwan and Hong Kong, where the domestic coffee market is relatively mature, take-out coffee is a standard business model and is very common. The average Taiwanese person drinks 200 cups of coffee a year, the average Korean person drinks 377 cups a year, and the average Chinese mainland person only drinks 6.2 cups. However, in the past two years, coffee has indeed developed rapidly in China. According to statistics, it has grown at a rate of 20% per year, while the global growth rate is only 2%. Shanghai is one of the most popular coffee consumption areas. According to statistics from the New First-tier Cities Research Institute in February 2016, there are about 5,296 coffee shops in Shanghai, of which Nanyang Road has the strongest coffee atmosphere, with an average of 45 coffee shops per square kilometer. 60% of them are independent coffee shops, and only 40% are chain brands such as Starbucks and Costa. A large part of the independent coffee shops adopt the small store model of Manner, and many of them are husband-and-wife shops. In contrast, Beijing and Guangzhou, also first-tier cities, only have more than 4,000, and Shenzhen has only more than 3,000, which is almost half of Shanghai. Manner and Seesaw are also mainly concentrated in Shanghai, while Beijing and Shenzhen only have a small number, which can only be regarded as pilot projects. Summarize Takeaway coffee is a point-of-sale business that requires a very good traffic location to support it. Due to factors in the coffee market and the difficulty of standardization, it is not easy for takeaway specialty coffee to be sold on a large scale, such as a chain brand as large as Starbucks. In addition, coffee is not consumed frequently in China, so many brands will choose to follow consumer demand and add milk tea, bread, and snacks, etc. The same store can sell more products and increase the average customer spending, just like a simplified convenience store. A typical example is Luckin Coffee. What about doing it yourself? It is recommended not to have a mentality of getting rich quickly, and you need to have enough patience. We have already calculated the accounts before. According to the current market situation, a small shop cannot make much money. Under normal circumstances, if it does well, it can sell about 200 cups of coffee a day and make a net profit of 10,000 or 20,000 yuan a month. If it does not do well, it may not be able to make back the investment. Especially when you first start, it is even more uncomfortable to see that you can only sell 34 cups of coffee a day and lose money every day. Of course, if you really like coffee, have the resources to seat yourself, and don’t care about making a quick return on investment or making a lot of money, you can give it a try. This type of store is less risky than opening a large store with seats. Starting a business is risky, and success is a probability event for only a few people. If you must start a business, you must be mentally prepared enough in the early stages. |
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