Four major coffee brands compete in a blind test. Who wins?

"Caijing" New Media Xu Changyang | Text

In recent years, as more and more "office workers" rely on coffee to "keep alive", the Chinese coffee market has also grown rapidly, and various brands have sprung up like mushrooms to occupy every corner of the city. But for the majority of consumers, the only way to get the best coffee is to drink it well.

On November 28, the Shenzhen News Network evaluation team and the consumer service professional organization "China Quality Tour" invited 20 coffee enthusiasts from the news, catering, IT and other industries to evaluate the four mainstream brands on the market: Luckin Coffee, Starbucks, Pacific Coffee and COSTA. This evaluation mainly focuses on the two types of coffee, "Latte (hot)" and "Americano (hot)", and adopts a "subjective + objective" form.

Statistics show that Chinese people’s favorite coffee is latte. In 15 of the 16 cities surveyed, latte is the best-selling coffee. Therefore, latte is the first choice for this coffee evaluation. American coffee has a relatively long extraction time (about four or five minutes) and a high caffeine content. It is also highly ordered in coffee shops and is known as a "life-saving magic weapon."

The evaluation consists of two parts: objective and subjective. In the objective evaluation, the evaluation team compared the price, delivery time, and arrival of each brand of coffee; in the subjective evaluation, the "latte" group evaluated the coffee's "aroma, smoothness, and mellowness" and other dimensions, while the "American" group scored around the "aroma, mellowness, balance, and aftertaste" and the three negative angles of "smoke, bitterness, and staleness".

“ Price + Delivery ” PK :

Luckin Coffee is crowned the “ King of Cost-Effectiveness ”

The first is the objective evaluation phase. The evaluation team focuses on the unit price, volume, time, temperature and packaging of the coffee.

In order to make a comprehensive assessment of the delivery time, cost index and appearance of the four coffees, the evaluation team selected two time periods: the peak delivery period at noon (note: two coffees of each brand were ordered at the same time) and the afternoon working period (note: to ensure the taste of the coffee, the order was placed in the order of the evaluation) to place orders, and recorded the order time, delivery time, delivery speed, etc. At the same time, in order to reduce the error caused by the location and distance of the coffee shop to the evaluation, all the evaluated coffees were from takeout.

In terms of delivery time, Starbucks is closest to the blind test point (only across a street) and has the shortest delivery time; Luckin Coffee has better delivery performance during the peak delivery period at noon; Pacific Coffee's delivery process is slower, with the longest delivery time reaching 52 minutes.

Map: Wander

Since each coffee brand has different preferential measures and delivery fees on each platform, this table calculates the total price and average unit price of 6 cups of each product purchased during the evaluation (6 cups of each product were purchased during the evaluation), and observes their appearance uniformly. (Note: The actual price includes delivery fees and discounts)

Map: Wander

The evaluation results show that Starbucks, COSTA and Pacific Coffee can enjoy certain discounts on third-party platforms, but they need to pay corresponding delivery costs; Luckin Coffee can only be purchased on its APP, but the discounts are relatively large - participate in the "charge 2 get 1 free" activity, and buy 6 cups for only the price of 4 cups.

In terms of actual unit price, Luckin Coffee's latte and Americano are 16 yuan/cup and 14 yuan/cup respectively, which are almost half the price of other brands - Starbucks' latte and Americano are 27.5 yuan/cup and 26.5 yuan/cup respectively; COSTA's latte and Americano are 34.33 yuan/cup and 30.33 yuan/cup respectively; Pacific Coffee's latte and Americano are 27.5 yuan/cup and 23.5 yuan/cup respectively.

In terms of volume, COSTA, which has the highest unit price, does not have the largest capacity. Pacific Coffee has the largest capacity, with the actual capacity of each cup of latte reaching 560ml and the actual capacity of Americano reaching 520ml; COSTA is second, with the actual capacity of latte being 480ml and the actual capacity of Americano being 500ml; Starbucks has the actual capacity of latte being 440ml and the actual capacity of Americano being 500ml; and Luckin Coffee has the lowest capacity, with the actual capacity of latte being 370ml and the actual capacity of Americano being 400ml. In addition, COSTA has the largest difference between its advertised capacity and actual capacity, with the capacity difference of latte reaching 120ml and the capacity difference of Americano reaching 100ml.

As for the delivery time and temperature, since the delivery distances of different coffee brands are different, these two data are for reference only (delivery time period: 13:30-15:30). All coffees are measured for delivery temperature and delivery time as soon as possible before the takeaway arrives. The specific data are as follows:

The delivery time of Starbucks is about 12 minutes, and the temperature of latte is 58.5℃ when it is delivered, and the temperature of Americano is 77.5℃ when it is delivered; Luckin Coffee takes about 20 minutes, and the temperature of latte is 54.4℃ when it is delivered, and the temperature of Americano is 60.2℃ when it is delivered; COSTA's delivery time is about 30 minutes, and the temperature of latte is 46.8℃ when it is delivered, and the temperature of Americano is 65.9℃ when it is delivered; Pacific Coffee takes about 40 minutes, and the temperature of latte is 54.5℃ when it is delivered, and the temperature of Americano is 59.1℃ when it is delivered.

In terms of packaging, the coffee packaging of Luckin Coffee, Starbucks, and COSTA is relatively intact, with no obvious packaging bag breakage or beverage spillage, while Pacific Coffee has more obvious coffee spillage and the overall appearance is poor.

Summary: Based on all objective indicators, Luckin Coffee and Starbucks are equally good in terms of delivery and packaging. The biggest difference is that Starbucks is more expensive, while Luckin has the best value for money. COSTA, which is the most expensive, did not deliver a correspondingly excellent report card, while Pacific Coffee performed poorly in delivery and packaging.

Blind taste test: Luckin Coffee " dominates " :

" Latte " has the highest willingness to repurchase, and " American " has the least defects

In the subjective evaluation phase, the evaluation team formulated different evaluation standards based on the characteristics of different coffees. In the blind test of the "latte group", the blind testers will evaluate from five dimensions: "aroma, smoothness, mellowness, bitterness, aftertaste and overall evaluation". The "American" group "rated" different coffees from three aspects and nine dimensions: positive sensory and flavor (including aroma, mellowness, balance, and aftertaste), defects (including smoke, burnt bitterness, stale taste, and other four dimensions) and overall evaluation. The results are as follows:

1. Latte:

Aroma is the life of coffee quality. The climate, altitude, variety, refining, harvest, storage of the production area, and whether the roasting technology of the consumer country is appropriate are all factors that affect the aroma of coffee beans.

The body of coffee refers to the saturation and weight of the coffee in the mouth. The oiliness, smoothness and the "heavy, thick and sticky" feeling of the coffee make up the body of coffee.

Bitterness is derived from the decomposition of chlorogenic acid in coffee beans during the roasting process. During the roasting process of coffee beans, the number of chlorogenic acid lactone molecules increases as the degree of roasting deepens. When roasted lightly or medium, coffee will produce a mild bitter taste, which is the pleasant bitterness that "coffee lovers" love and has the characteristics of coffee. As the roasting time increases, the molecules of chlorogenic acid lactone are decomposed again, and replaced by ethylene catechol polymers, which will produce a strong bitter taste. Therefore, the bitterness of coffee reflects the precision of the roasting and soaking techniques.

Aftertaste refers to the feeling of aftertaste in the mouth after drinking coffee. The stronger the acidity and bitterness in the coffee, and the better the balance, the more obvious the aftertaste of the coffee. Generally speaking, the better the quality of the coffee beans, the more obvious the aftertaste.

So, after 20 coffee experts had several rounds of blind drinking, which brand of latte was the most popular among them? The following is our carefully compiled flavor evaluation table (the scores are rounded off):

Conclusion: In the latte competition, Luckin Coffee won the championship, Starbucks ranked second, and Pacific Coffee scored the lowest. In the overall evaluation of subjective latte reviews, Luckin received a "5-star rating" and ranked first, while Starbucks received a "4.5-star rating" and ranked second with a slight disadvantage. In addition to failing in the objective evaluation link, Pacific Coffee (latte) also received the lowest score in the subjective link, and the coffee taste needs to be further improved.

In terms of repurchase intention, the least number of people are willing to buy Pacific Latte again due to its poor taste; while the willingness to repurchase Luckin Coffee (Latte) and recommend it to friends is the strongest due to its better taste, lower price and high cost performance.

Luckin Coffee's hot-selling "Gingerbread Man" latte this winter

In addition, Luckin also obtained high scores in individual dimensions, among which the scores in the two dimensions of "aroma" and "bitterness" were much higher than other brands, which shows that it is unique in the selection of coffee ingredients and roasting techniques.

2. American style:

When evaluating American-style coffee, the evaluation team introduced four negative evaluation dimensions: "smoky taste, burnt bitterness, stale taste and others".

Among them, "smoky and burnt bitterness" are important manifestations of poor roasting skills. Green coffee beans themselves are not bitter. The bitterness of coffee comes from the process of turning green beans into ripe beans - that is, roasting coffee beans. Green coffee beans contain a component called chlorogenic acid, which is a substance produced by plants in response to environmental changes. The bitterness of coffee is also related to chlorogenic acid.

During the roasting process of coffee beans, if the roasting time is too long, the coffee will have a "burnt and bitter" taste; if the smoke exhaust is not handled well or the temperature is not controlled well, the coffee will not only be astringent, but also accompanied by a strong sense of smoke.

A stale smell means that the coffee beans are not fresh enough. If the coffee beans have lost their fragrance or smell stale, it means that they have been exposed to moisture or have been stored for too long and are no longer fresh.

Which brands of classic American coffee can withstand several rounds of "blind drinking" by coffee experts? Here is the flavor evaluation table of the "American coffee group" (the scores are rounded):

Conclusion: Based on the combined positive and negative scores (positive - negative = final score), Starbucks and Luckin Coffee performed well overall. Among them, Starbucks performed well in all indicators and can be called the "balanced king", while Luckin Coffee had the least deductions in the four dimensions of defects and performed the best, which can be said to be "outstanding highlights".

In terms of positive sensory perception and flavor, Starbucks was rated best in the balance dimension, Luckin Coffee was rated best in the "aroma and aftertaste" dimensions, and Pacific Coffee was rated best in "richness".

In terms of defects, Pacific Coffee performed poorly in "smoky and bitter" aspects; COSTA performed poorly in "stale taste" and the other two dimensions. It is worth noting that COSTA's "stale taste" score is significantly higher than similar brands tested. Experts said that the high stale taste may indicate that the coffee beans have been stored for a long time and the quality has changed slightly.

Epilogue: Starbucks is a shrewd company, and the " little blue cup " should not be underestimated

Starbucks entered China in 1998 and has been here for 21 years. Although Starbucks is not the first coffee brand to enter the Chinese market, it has a good understanding of Chinese people's taste. The "balance" achieved by Starbucks in the production of American coffee is an important reflection of its many years of market experience.

In comparison, Luckin Coffee, which was founded in 2018, has been operating in the Chinese market for less than two years, but it is already almost on par with industry "giants" such as Starbucks, which shows that its strength cannot be underestimated.

As of the end of September 2019, Luckin Coffee had a total of 3,680 stores, of which 717 were newly opened in the third quarter. Based on the pace of 884 new stores opened in Q4 2018, Luckin's total number of stores will exceed 4,500 by the end of 2019, achieving its established goal. In the past 12 months, Luckin opened 2,491 new stores, an average of 623 new stores per quarter.

Starbucks is also expanding in China. In the just-concluded fiscal year 2019, the number of its stores in China increased from 3,521 to 4,123, a net increase of 602 stores, with an average of 150 new stores opened each quarter. However, if Starbucks China opens fewer than 370 new stores in Q4 this year, the total number of stores will be surpassed by Luckin Coffee. Luckin Coffee's goal is to open 10,000 stores by the end of 2021.

In the above review, Luckin has proven the quality of its coffee, which may be a major reason why it has recently achieved profitability in store operations.

In the third quarter of 2019, Luckin Coffee sold an average of 34.7 million cups of freshly ground coffee and 960,000 light meals and other foods per month. The total quarterly sales volume was 133 million, with an annualized sales volume of 530 million; the average monthly active users reached 9.34 million, with year-on-year and month-on-month growth of 7.46 million and 3.17 million respectively. At the same time, the operating costs, raw material purchases, depreciation and start-up costs of Luckin stores accounted for 86% of revenue in the quarter, that is, the gross profit margin reached 14%, and this was in the case of a large number of free drinks (store revenue is the net income after deducting free drinks and coupons).

This also means that the two-and-a-half-year-old Luckin Coffee has transformed from "losing money on every cup you buy" to "making money on every store you open", and has moved from a "disruptor" in the coffee market to a "helmsman". Regardless of whether Luckin's number of stores can surpass Starbucks this year, the latter will no longer be able to ignore this "terrible" rival.

Related reading:

On November 13, 2019, Luckin Coffee (NYSE: LK) released its Q3 financial report, showing that its revenue in the third quarter reached 1.54 billion, a year-on-year increase of 540%; 717 new stores were opened, with a total of 3,680 stores; 7.9 million new users, and a total of 30.7 million transaction users. More importantly, Luckin Coffee achieved store profitability for the first time this quarter (excluding marketing costs), with operating profits reaching 186 million yuan.

After the financial report was released, Luckin Coffee's stock price rose, with the largest increase of nearly 60% in a few trading days. Based on the closing price of $31.47 on November 29, Luckin Coffee's market value has reached $7.563 billion (about 53.1 billion RMB), solidifying its reputation as a "phenomenal unicorn."